Copyright 2014 Reboot Illinois
A new Reboot Illinois poll shows U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin maintaining the 15-point lead he registered in a previous survey over his Republican challenger, state Sen. Jim Oberweis.
The poll, conducted July 30 by We Ask America among 1,049 respondents, yielded results almost identical to those of a June 12 Reboot Illinois/We Ask America survey of 1,116 likely voters in the November election.
Durbin, first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996 as successor to Paul Simon with a 15-point win over Al Salvi, enjoyed sizable margins of victory in his 2002 and 2008 reelection campaigns (he won by 22 points in 2002 and 39 points in 2008) and is viewed as a heavy favorite in November. Oberweis, who has strong name recognition from his service in the Illinois Senate and the dairy that bears his name, unsuccessfully sought the Republican U.S. Senate nominations in 2002 and 2004.
Durbin’s showing among all respondents in the latest poll grew slightly — from 52 to 53 percent — while Oberweis lost about .5 point. Voters preferred Durbin by a margin of 53-38, a slight change from June results that had Durbin ahead 52-39.
“There was hardly any change in any of these races from the last one we did for Reboot Illinois,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “The one interesting thing I noticed was the high number of people who told us they generally vote Republican but say they’ll vote for Dick Durbin. That’s a steep hill for Mr. Oberweis to climb.”
Durbin doubled up on Oberweis among female participants, who chose Durbin by a 60-30 margin. Durbin also had especially strong showings in Chicago and suburban Cook County, where he led Oberweis by 59 and 38 points, respectively. Two bright spots for Oberweis came in results from suburban collar county and downstate respondents. Oberweis led Durbin 50-41 downstate and 46-42 in the collar counties.
The new poll results are in the charts below, broken down by party, gender and location of respondents. If the interactive graphics don’t display properly, or if you preview a static view of the data, scroll down to the end of this post to see all results in table form.
First, here’s a look at the overall results from the June 12 and July 30 surveys.
Here are results from the new poll among all respondents and by party affiliation of participants.
Here are results by gender of participants.
Here’s a look at which parts of the state provide the most support for each candidate. Conventional political wisdom in Illinois is that Republican candidates for statewide office must win 20 percent of the Chicago vote to win the state.
Here are the results in table form.
From the pollster:
We Ask America’s automated polls are conducted using our proprietary lists of Illinois voters. Each person responded to identical pre-recorded questions although in some cases the options are rotated to assure no preference of order is involved. Cell phones users who have volunteered to answer our poll questions are included; others in that category may be contacted through a variety of proprietary methods.
Our sampling methodology ensures that We Ask America poll results are “projectable,” meaning that if every voter in a given geography participated, the results would not differ from the reported poll results by more than the stated margin of error (±3.06%) 95 percent of the time.
We Ask America adheres to the principles, ethics and guidelines of the American Association of Public Opinion Research.