Copyright 2014 Reboot Illinois
After unsuccessful tries to win the Republican Illinois U.S. Senate nomination in 2002 and 2004, State Sen. Jim Oberweis succeeded in March and faces Sen. Dick Durbin in November.
Durbin, of Springfield, is seeking his fourth term in the Senate, where he has served as majority whip since 2007.
Durbin has won convincing victories in all three of his previous Senate races, and is regarded as a heavy favorite over Oberweis, who has strong name recognition statewide both because of the dairy business that bears his name and because of his many unsuccessful political efforts over the years.
The first public poll of the Senate race, commissioned by Reboot Illinois and conducted by We Ask America on June 12, appears to affirm Durbin’s strong position in the 2014 contest. The survey of 1,116 likely voters showed Durbin leading Oberweis 52 to 39 percent with 9 percent undecided.
“Senator Durbin’s campaign is showing solid numbers for a June ballot test. While there is a lot of time left before the November election, having more than 50 percent in his corner this early shows a lot of strength that will be a challenge for Mr. Oberweis to overcome,” said Gregg Durham, COO of We Ask America.
Durbin had an especially strong showing among women, with 56 percent of female respondents supporting him compared to 32 percent for Oberweis.
The suburban collar counties surrounding Cook County have the most even split among the state’s four major regions, with Durbin leading 49-45. Oberweis led Durbin 48-41 among downstate respondents, but — should that figure hold through November — it’s not nearly enough to offset Durbin’s very strong showings in the city of Chicago (where he leads 71-16) and suburban Cook County (58-34).
By comparison, Durbin won 73 percent of the Cook County suburban vote when he defeated Steve Sauerberg in 2008. (Durbin won with 68 percent of the vote statewide to Sauerburg’s 29 percent.)
Poll results presented below are sorted by party, gender and region of Illinois. Click the tabs to see how each candidate scored with a particular group. (Editor’s note: These interactive charts function best on Chrome. When viewing in other browsers, poll numbers will change as tabs are clicked but proportions may not be reflected on the charts.)
Here are results sorted by gender.
Where in the state do Durbin and Oberweis have strengths and weaknesses? The chart below separates results by location of respondents.
From the pollster:
We Ask America’s automated polls are conducted using our proprietary lists of Illinois voters. Each person responded to identical pre-recorded questions although in some cases the options are rotated to assure no preference of order is involved. Cell phones users who have volunteered to answer our poll questions are included; others in that category may be contacted through a variety of proprietary methods.
Our sampling methodology ensures that We Ask America poll results are “projectable,” meaning that if every voter in a given geography participated, the results would not differ from the reported poll results by more than the stated margin of error (±2.93%) 95 percent of the time.
We Ask America adheres to the principles, ethics and guidelines of the American Association of Public Opinion Research.
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